“We start off by saying I have no idea,” Somerville told the Georgia Straight in a phone interview. For him, forecasting is a risky business because “you’re wrong more often, even if you’re intelligent”.

An economist who earned his PhD from Harvard University, Somerville said that he prefers to evaluate what others have projected for the new year.

“The general trend seems to be that it’s going to be a slower market than 2011, and I think the combination of lingering economic unease and uncertainty is consistent with that,” the UBC academic explained. “The other thing is 2011—if you take away Richmond, the West Side [of Vancouver], and West Vancouver—was not some amazing prices-going-through-the-ceiling kind of year. In general for most places, things are going to look like 2011. Maybe a little bit slower.”

Asked about the biggest risk to the market, Somerville responded: “The economy, the economy, and the economy.”

He referred mainly to global hazards like the financial crisis in Europe and the lingering malaise in the U.S., although some recovery has been observed in the American economy. “The other thing, and it’s tied to that, is people’s concerns about their own debt loads,” Somerville said. “The more you’re worried about your debt load, the more you’re worried about the economy.”

Another economist interviewed by the Straight also doesn’t anticipate any major surprises in 2012.

“I don’t see any major drop in the housing market,” Helmut Pastrick said in a phone interview. “I don’t see any major upsurge either.”

The chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union, the trade association for credit unions in B.C. and Ontario, explained what this means for both buyers and sellers. “If you’re a buyer, it’s going to be a reasonably good market,” Pastrick said. “Interest rates will remain low. If you’re a seller, perhaps it’s not as rosy as it might be, but again, prices will remain fairly steady. It’s not a bad outcome either for sellers.”

In early November, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation issued its housing-market outlook for 2012.

The national housing agency predicts a moderate growth in demand for new and resale homes in the Lower Mainland because of the region’s growing population and steady job market.

According to CMHC, resales are likely to rise by nine percent in 2012, to 36,000 transactions.

It also anticipates that the annual average price for all home types will settle at $788,000 in 2011, which is 17 percent over that of the previous year. For 2012, the average price is forecast to increase by two percent to $805,000.

Before Christmas, a number of banks released their prognoses for the Canadian housing market in the new year.

Scotiabank anticipates dampened demand because of economic uncertainty, although low interest rates will continue to attract buyers. The Royal Bank of Canada expects the same trend due to high personal-debt levels.

TD Economics of the TD Bank Financial Group predicts a “tug-of-war action” in the Canadian real estate market between low interest rates and restrained prospects for economic growth. It expects sales on the national level to decline 2.4 percent in 2012 and 3.5 percent in 2013.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that Canadian home prices are overvalued by up to 10 percent. It predicts a five-percent drop in home prices in the first half of 2012. According to the bank, the market is “showing many of the signs of a classic bubble”.

Although houses are expensive in Metro Vancouver, Central 1 Credit Union’s Pastrick doesn’t view the regional market as being in a bubble.

“A bubble in real estate or in any asset market usually needs to have a fair amount of speculation present as well as very easy money,” Pastrick said. “Money is cheap but not easy. It’s not easy for a person to walk into a lender and have a weak credit rating and obtain loans. Lenders are fairly conscious of the risks involved and they’re quite conservative.”

Source: Straight.com

In the last few days, RBC and Scotiabank have eliminated their advertised variable-rate discounts.

They’re now promoting variable mortgages at prime + 0.10%, twenty basis points more than their previous “special offers.”

Prime + 0.10% (i.e., 3.10%) is an interesting number. A few months ago consumers thought that fat variable-rate discounts were here to stay. Variables above prime will now come as a shock to some people.

The banks are well aware of that. They know that pricing above prime impacts consumer psychology.

Source: Rob McLister, CMT

Bank of America economist Sheryl King said Wednesday she expects that the central bank will cut the rate to 0.25 per cent by early next year.

King, head of Canada economics at Bank of America’s offices in Toronto, cited the strains from Europe’s debt crisis.

And David Madani, Canadian economist at Capital Economics, predicted the bank will lower its rate to 0.5 per cent next year, perhaps in April or June.

Madani said the bank would act amid “rising fears about the outlook for the global economy and falling inflationary pressures.”

He predicted that commodity prices would fall “sharply” next year and “somewhat further” in 2013 because of weak global demand, that a downturn in the U.S. would result in a drop in exports to Canada’s main trading partner and that housing prices here would slump.

On October 25, the bank announced for the ninth consecutive time that it was holding the rate at one per cent, where it has been since September 2010.

Madani also estimated Ottawa will take even longer to eliminate its $33 billion budget deficit.

Just yesterday, the government said it expected the budget would not come into balance for a year longer than its estimate in the spring.

It now expects the deficit to be gone by 2015.

The two economists’ predictions came the same day as interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae said that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is downplaying the potential impact of Europe’s economic crisis on Canada.

Source: Huffington Post

The turmoil inflicted on world financial markets over the last two weeks is taking the pressure off bankers to raise interest rates, something that was expected to happen this fall.

“What everyone was anticipating before all this came to light was for mortgage rates to start to increase,” said Ryan McKinley, mortgage development manager for Vancity credit union.

But now, McKinley said, the credit union’s members sense the possibility that already low rates could even be heading lower. Vancity’s best five-year fixed mortgage is sitting at 3.79 per cent, and its variable rate is 2.2 per cent.

“After watching the news and realizing this may turn into lower mortgage rates, it’s re-lit the fire in people to come in and see what they can get,” he said.

And while no financial institutions have made a move yet, McKinley said the expectation is that rates will come down in the fallout from the cascade of economic developments that began with the European Union’s sovereign debt crisis and includes Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the United States’ debt rating and decline of world stock markets.

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for the Bank of Montreal, said the Bank of Canada is under less pressure to increase its key trendsetting lending rate, now at one per cent, after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled Tuesday it will hold its corresponding trendsetting rate until at least mid-2013 due to the economic uncertainty.

That interest rate influences the variable mortgage rates banks can offer.

Porter also said the number of investors pulling their money out of stock markets and investing in bonds has pushed down returns from bonds, which will influence longer-term fixed mortgage rates, as well as lines of credit and other consumer loans.

“Lenders respond with a bit of a lag, they want to make sure this isn’t a flash and is a true change in conditions,” Porter said in an interview.

“But the longer this turmoil in equities lasts, the more likely it will work its way down mortgage rates as well.”

That will benefit first-time homebuyers and anyone looking to renew mortgages over the next year as lower rates reduce borrowing costs, said Scotiabank senior economist Adrienne Warren.

However, the effect of the low rates on the housing market will be tempered by how much potential buyers’ confidence has been damaged by the volatility in equity markets.

“It’s probably not a big shock for the housing market in general; I wouldn’t significantly alter our expectations over the next couple of years,” Warren said.

Those expectations were for modest increases in sales in Canadian housing markets, but relatively stagnant prices.

However, Warren said the economic uncertainty may squeeze existing homeowners looking to move up the property ladder, especially those worried about having lost money in their investment portfolios.

“In terms of the Vancouver market, that may be a fairly significant factor,” she said.

Phil Soper, CEO of realty firm Royal LePage, said Metro Vancouver is Canada’s most volatile market, which can move quickly up or down depending on the market’s mood.

“Because people push the limits of affordability when acquiring homes, they tend to be feverish in opportunities for new property when the sentiment is positive,” Soper said, “and they tend to move away from the market at a much quicker pace than other regions when feelings turn sour.”

Soper said economic uncertainty in the U.S., and whether it develops into a double-dip recession, is the biggest risk to housing markets. But he doesn’t see it denting Metro Vancouver’s market as deeply as the 2008 recession.

“By the fourth quarter of 2008, we were deep in the throes of an economic meltdown of a scale we hadn’t seen on a global basis for a generation,” Soper said. “Is that going to happen again so quickly? I think it’s very unlikely.”

Source: Vancouver Sun

But with interest rates bouncing around, to the point where they make a mortgage-rate chart look more like the diagram of a rollercoaster, homeowners can be forgiven if they are hesitant.

After all, every time mortgage rates rise, they seem to come back down again. Recently, Royal Bank tried to raise mortgage rates, increasing the cost of its five-year fixed mortgage by 0.15 per cent, only to quietly lower them a few weeks later.

What gives?

On the variable side, rates have been stable, holding at 2.1 per cent for so long it seems like the new normal. They are priced based on the Bank of Canada rate. And with the U.S. economy slowing (Alberta created more jobs than the U.S. did in the last quarter), it’s little wonder that Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney decided not to raise interest rates this week – and it’s doubtful he will anytime soon.

While the variable rate has held steady for months, fixed-rate mortgages are far more difficult to predict. Fixed mortgages are primarily priced off of the five-year bond, and as a result are subject to volatility in the bond market, which is being whipsawed by the European sovereign debt crisis.

As more European countries edge toward default, interest rates have risen on their bonds, in some cases to more than 10 per cent. Many investors, however, fearing widespread defaults, have fled to the safe haven of the U.S. bond market. In the process, that has kept U.S. rates in the 2.3 per cent range, and helped keep mortgages rates low in this country, with a five-year fixed term mortgage going as low as 3.29 per cent.

But these bedrock-low rates could rise quickly if the U.S. does not solve its own debt crisis. President Obama has asked Congress to lift the country’s debt ceiling — the amount the country can borrow to meet its obligations. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives is refusing to grant the increase until Obama makes deep cuts to government expenditures.

They have until Aug. 2 to solve the impasse and if nothing is done, the U.S. will default on the latest round of payments it has to make on its debts. Bond rating agencies have already said they will downgrade U.S. bonds if a default occurs. If that happens, it will drive up interest rates in the U.S. and push rates up on Canadian mortgages in the process.

“If Europe gets into trouble and the U.S. gets into trouble, money will be looking elsewhere,” says Kelvin Mangaroo, founder and president of RateSupermarket.ca. “Interest rates have been bouncing around and we might continue to see that until the U.S. credit situation gets sorted out.”

Could the uncertainty in Europe actually drive interest rates lower in Canada?

If Obama and Congressional Republicans come to an agreement, there could be a sudden flight to quality as investors buy U.S. bonds. That could drive down interest rates on the U.S. five-year bond, and reduce rates on Canadian fixed mortgages.

“There is always the possibility that they could drop a bit still,” said Mangaroo. “They’ve been lower before, so there is no reason that they can’t go back.”

With so much volatility in the market, should you lock in your mortgage? It’s hard to say, but studies have concluded you are better off holding a variable mortgage. Then again, those studies also include periods of extremely high interest rates, but with rates now at historic lows they would only go marginally lower.

In fact, you can purchase a 10-year mortgage for just 4.84 per cent and a 25-year at 8.35 per cent. In effect, you could lock your mortgage costs in at today’s historic lows and that would pay dividends long after the crisis in Europe and the U.S. has passed and rates are rising again.

Whether to lock in or not is the most common question Mangaroo gets at RateSupermarket.ca. About one-third of Canadian mortgages are variable, but Mangaroo says, “It all comes down to risk profile. And interest rates will be going up, so if you’re uncomfortable with that, you should look at a fixed five-year term which is at 3.5 per cent.”

But one thing is certain. If you hold a variable mortgage, you can breathe a little easier knowing Carney won’t be raising rates anytime soon. Ian Lee, director of the MBA Program at Carleton University, says this is because of the ongoing failure by the European leadership to address, let alone resolve, the growing Eurozone debt crisis and the ongoing inability of the U.S. political leadership to seriously address their annual $1.5 trillion deficit and $14 trillion debt.

“This clearly suggests,” says Lee, “that Governor Carney will think many times before raising interest rates now or in the fall.”

Source: Yahoo Finance

Over the past few months, major economists have backpeddled on their rate hike predictions.

Not long ago, the consensus of economists was projecting a July 19 increase. Now, those same analysts aren’t looking for a rate bump until this fall…or later.

Here’s a chart from BMO illustrating how fast rate hike expectations have waned.

A slew of factors justify a deferral of rate increases, including:

• A parade of weak economic data from the U.S.—our key trading partner
• Core inflation that remains manageable
• Global economic risks
• Debt-laden consumers that are only cautiously spending
• A U.S. housing market that’s double-dipping
• U.S. unemployment that may be structurally and permanently elevated
• A Canadian dollar that is still acting as a brake on our economy.

For reasons like these, TD Bank became the first major bank last week to predict the Bank of Canada would stand pat on rates through 2011. Depending on how the next rounds of economic data look, other banks may follow suit.

Then again, the rate picture can and does change.

BMO says: “…it is too soon to dismiss the possibility (of rate hikes in 2011).”

BoC chief Mark Carney recently said: “…The expectations, both in the medium term and sooner than the medium term, is that rates are not going to stay at these unusually low levels.”

For now, here’s what the Big 6 are projecting for rates through 2012:

************

Latest Overnight Rate Forecast

The Bank of Canada’s overnight target has a direct impact on variable mortgage rates.

Bank	2011	2012
BMO	1.50	2.75
CIBC	1.75	2.00
NBC	2.00	2.75
RBC	1.75	3.00
Scotia	1.50	2.25
TD	1.00	2.00
Year-end Avg	1.50	2.50
Chg vs Today	+0.50	+1.50

(Figures above are year-end and rounded to the nearest 1/4 point increment.)

Latest 5-Year Government Bond Yield Forecast

Government bond yields drive 5-year fixed mortgage rates.

Bank	2011	2012
BMO	2.93	3.80
NBC	3.46	3.88
RBC	3.30	4.05
Scotia	2.85	3.35
TD	2.70	3.65
Year-end Avg	3.05	3.75
Chg vs Today	+0.89	+1.59

(CIBC’s 5-year bond forecast was not available.)

Caveats

The above projections should be qualified as follows:

1. With only four Bank of Canada policy meetings to go in 2011, some of the banks may soon defer or pare back on these rate increase estimates.
2. The Overnight index swap (OIS) market, which mirrors BoC rate expectations, tends to predict rate changes slightly better than economists. Currently, OIS prices are implying less than 50% probability of a rate hike this year. The next rate increase is not fully priced in until February 2012 (updated as of Friday’s close)! Just a few months ago, the OIS market believed rates would increase on July 19.
3. Long-term rate outlooks have margins of error as big as 1.00% or more, so use them only as a rough guide (more on this below).

Variable-Rate Mortgage Forecast

Bank estimates, if accurate, imply a 4.50% prime rate by December 31, 2012. Prime rate is currently 3.00% and the 10-year average of prime is 4.33%.

Based on an 80-basis-point discount from prime, these forecasts suggest 5-year variable rates in the 3.70% range by year-end 2012. That’s slightly higher than today’s best 5-year fixed rates.

Fixed-Rate Mortgage Forecast

The banks predict that 5-year bond yields will rise to 3.75% in 18 months. That level would eclipse the 10-year average of 3.61%.

Assuming a typical 125 basis point spread above yields, these forecasts imply that deeply-discounted 5-year fixed rates could hit about 5.00% by year-end 2012.

************

Rate Forecasting In Perspective

The major banks spend millions to formulate accurate interest rate projections.  Their economists utilize every data source, academic study, historical backtest, and analysis tool imaginable. Yet, try as they might, their forecasts are far from infallible.

Despite economists’ notorious and continuous forecast revisions, long-term rate estimates still provide a useful reference point. Part of their value is in showing what might happen if the world unfolds without global crises and major economic disruptions.

With that reference point as a “base case,” these forecasts can be useful for creating amortization models based on future rate assumptions. The key is to incorporate a reasonable margin of error in those models—one that’s big enough to account for things like hyper-growth/inflation or the aforementioned economic disruptions.

Other Things to Note: Bank forecasts, like those above, are subject to frequent change. This data is therefore provided only for general interest.  Always discuss your needs and risk tolerance with a mortgage professional before acting on any such information.

History has shown that it’s near impossible to accurately predict interest rates long-term, so use these figures at your own risk. That said, while economist projections are often wrong, they remain one of the better sources of educated opinion on interest rates.

“Chg” = the expected change in rates from today. In other words, Chg is the average forecast minus today’s rates. All estimates above are based on the respective year-end, except those of BMO. BMO forecasts the average rates for a given quarter, instead of the rate at the end of that quarter. Because of that, we have averaged BMO’s Q4 and Q1 forecasts to estimate the year-end 2011 figure.

Bank estimates are taken from their latest forecasts published online. Overnight rate results are rounded to the nearest 1/4 point, in keeping with the Bank of Canada’s standard rate setting increments.

Data Sources: BMO, CIBC, National Bank, RBC, Scotiabank, TD

Source: Canadian Mortgage Trends

“With signs the U.S. and global economies have entered a soft patch and the European debt crisis continuing to roil, most economists do not expect the bank to raise its overnight target rate until at least September.”

Read the full story at Vancouver Sun

However, TD said it still believed the central bank’s overnight rate would be 1.75 per cent by the end of the year and three per cent by the third quarter of 2012.

David Tulk, TD’s chief Canadian macro strategist, and Ian Pollick, a portfolio and rates strategist, suggested there was a gap between what the Bank of Canada should do and what it will do and argued the central bank should move sooner rather than later to raise rates.

“Looking further out over the balance of the year and into 2012, the main message of the forecast is unchanged,” the economists wrote in a report.

“Keep in mind that the current focus of the market on international events will eventually come at its peril when conditions in the domestic economy demand a response by the (central) bank.”

The Bank of Canada’s next opportunity to raise interest rates comes May 31.

The central bank’s overnight directly affects lines of credit and variable rate mortgages.

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney gave no indication about his plans for interest rates in Canada in a speech Monday, instead taking the opportunity to warn about the dangers of high levels of debt in advanced economies.

Carney said Canada has the advantage of a strong fiscal position, but that it cannot totally evade the fallout of high debt in the U.S. and other advanced countries.

Source: Advisor.ca